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Joined 2 years ago
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Cake day: July 14th, 2023

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  • The original source was much more sensible.

    The comparison makes sense for evaluating whether you’re over-invested in something. Like, if Nvidia suddenly poofed out of existence, would it seriously be worth 16% of everything the whole country makes in a year to get it back?

    Owning a car that’s worth 16% of your yearly income sounds reasonable, no matter what your actual income is. A Pokemon card collection that’s 16% of your income is probably too risky, no matter what your actual income is.

    Also, GDP is a decent scale to use for charting investment in a productivity tool, because if GDP ramped up at the same time as investment then it looks less like a bubble, even if they both ramp up quickly.

    But that’s not what we see. We see a sudden and volatile shift, nothing like the normal pattern before the hype.












  • People have thought for thousands of years that they were living in the time of a great final battle against eternal tyranny — and that they were destined to fail.

    There’s a strange comfort in being certain of doom. It makes the world simple and understandable. Predictable, and therefore less jarring. Doom is invulnerable to good news — in fact, good news is always bad news in the framework of doom, because it means delaying the inevitable and inviting false hope.

    But the real story of the last several thousand years is that the world is complex. People are more complex than we could’ve understood even a hundred years ago. And the universe may be even stranger than we possibly can imagine.

    I’m not telling you to be certain of a positive outcome. I’m just telling you to let go of certainty.