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Cake day: May 4th, 2024

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  • I meant actual numbers in regards to my last comment (the one you previously replied to) since I was just basing that one on calculations I did like a year ago. So now I made another comment where I used actual numbers instead of just roughly writing my conclusion from a year ago. It was not directed at your comment, sorry for the misunderstanding.

    And I’m using low mileage per year because as I stated in the comment before this is about my situation, about if an EV is practical for me or if I’m forced to wait until they’re getting cheaper. Currently I’m at around 5000 km per year, I use public transport a lot (and am not expecting that to change anytime soon).

    Also the price per kWh is the average price per kWh in my area and is roughly the average I’m getting (I think I have 0.17€ rn since it’s cheaper in summer but I also had 0.42€ already in winter so 0.2€ average really isn’t high).

    Battery replacement rate is based on this (first search result for ev battery degradation):

    At the average degradation rate of 2.3% per year, an EV battery would take 15 years to decline to 70% maximum charge. However, as we expect EV battery life to decline non-linearly, there would likely be a more significant drop-off as the battery ages.

    This means the battery is at 80% capacity after 10 years, which already drops the range below 300 km in winter for not insanely expensive EV. I do not have first hand experience on how many years a battery lasts, but even if it lasts 20 years (63% with this formula, although they do state that it’s expected to decline quicker after longer usage, and current EVs wouldn’t get my minimum 300 km winter range anymore) I’m still at break even point when buying a new battery after those 20 years.

    That’s why I’m holding off for now and just continue driving my reliable 25 year old Skoda, hoping for EV to become cheaper soon (all it takes is a new battery technology… the battery is why EVs are so expensive rn).

    And your source is calculating with prices from 2019. Before COVID, before the Russo-Ukrainian war. I’m using numbers from this year.


  • Alright, time to do actual numbers.

    18.000 is heavily influenced by all the people driving >100.000 km per year, unless that’s the median, not the average. I’m far below 10.000 and still waiting for it to be worth it for me. I’ll calculate with 10.000 for now.

    Modern ICE cars need far less than 6l. A modern VW Golf for example only needs 4-5 l per 100 km (4.5 avg, and yes it actually is that low, I’ve been driving a modern VW Golf at the military a few times and have tracked my average fuel consumption there).

    Gas currently fluctuates from 1.525 to 1.599 in my area, so I’m always only filling the car on Monday mornings when it’s 1.525.

    10 000 * 1.525 * 4.5/100 = 686.25€ per year.

    Even if there’s a major crisis like when the war in Ukraine started and the price goes up to 2€ per liter for some time and I’m at 1.8€ average for the year (I have never had such a high average so this is really stretching it), we get 10 000 * 1.8 * 4.5/100 = 810€ per year. Worst case, never happened before scenario.

    Economic modern EV need ~16 kWh per 100 km. The average price per kWh at home is 0.2€ in my area.

    10 000 * 0.2 * 20/100 = 400€ per year.

    = 286.25€ (410€ worst case) per year saved (purely for moving the car), assuming I always charge at home. If I do longer trips on holidays and have to charge somewhere else that gap gets lower.

    Even when adding less taxes, less repairs (but modern engines really don’t need much repairing, even though they’re much more complex than electric motors and wasting more energy) it will still will take a long time to break equal (probably never because I need a new battery before breaking equal).

    If I have an average of 10k km per year that’s 16.200€ for 200.000 km over 20 years with an ICE car at 1.8€/l (higher average than I’ve ever experienced) or 6.400€ for the same with an electric car at 0.2€/kWh (which is below my average of the last two years). Ignoring inflation for simplicity, just assume my salary goes up with inflation so percentually it stays the same.

    If I need a new battery (10.000€, actually more but I’ll just say 10.000 for now since they’ll likely go down at some point) every 10 years then I’m just about to break equal after 20 years, right before going negative again by buying another battery.


    • Yes, but you have to drive a lot to make up for the price. Dropping from 10€ per 100 km to 5€ per 100 km and slightly less maintenance cost (modern Diesel motors - and by modern I mean the last few decades, given that the motor has been treated well - are pretty carefree already) takes a long time to pay off. If you drive 10.000 km per year that’ll save you 500€ per year + minor maintenance savings, but you pay 10.000+ € more when buying the car. For electric motorcycles it’s even less notable since they need less fuel.

    • Lifespan also is difficult to evaluate. I’m currently using a 25 year old Skoda Octavia and it’s still causing no problems and I still could resell it for 3000-4000€. When driving an EV for 20+ years you’ll very likely have to replace the battery, probably twice (easily 10.000€ with current batteries every time you need a new one).

    • Another point: Resell value. Due to battery degradation and especially very quick technological advancements EVs tend to lose their value quicker than fuel powered vehicles.

    I really want to buy an EV but it just doesn’t make sense yet. Give me an EV that’s not wasting any money on fancy screens, excessively good speakers, … with like 300 km of effective uphill range for a reasonable price and I’m in.








  • Ty. Saving others some time:

    Contactless payments work fine on GrapheneOS. It’s not like there’s something fundamentally incompatible about them. It just so happens that the most prevalent implementation (Gpay) requires a Google certified OS. The options right now are as follows:

    People find alternatives (such as their bank) which provide this without using Gpay and don’t require a certified OS themselves.

    This is implemented, which would at least temporarily allow people to use apps that require a certified OS on GrapheneOS: https://github.com/GrapheneOS/os-issue-tracker/issues/1986

    Apps currently requiring a Google certified OS whitelist it as per https://grapheneos.org/articles/attestation-compatibility-guide (though it is of course very unlikely that Google themselves would do this)

    But:

    Barclays in the UK is only one example of contactless payments working without Google Pay, there are other banks in France for example for which we’ve had reports of similar contactless payment systems working. They exist; though I’m under no illusions that they’re prevalent, since I imagine from their POV, implementing Google Pay is much easier and maintainable.

    On the spoofing CTS checks thing, I did not mean to insinuate that you or some other user would be the one to implement this. When I said “an option is for this to be implemented”, I meant the development team adding it to GrapheneOS. The issue is currently open and was opened by someone on the development team, so it’s not a feature that the team has ruled out. As with everything on GrapheneOS, though, the best way to approach it has to be determined, which can take time.

    On your 3rd point, lobbying Google to whitelist GrapheneOS by using that guide is realistically never going to happen. Other OEMs that have to go through certification and pass CTS (compatibility test suite) which GrapheneOS doesn’t (because it adds things like new permissions which deviate from the compatibility goals that Android has set) would be outraged if that ever happened. In fact, I would wager that it would be a much more realistic scenario for someone to invest millions into funding a company that provides an alternative to Google Pay without puttng it behind a CTS check, rather than Google ever whitelisting GrapheneOS.

    When someone says “contactless payments don’t work on GrapheneOS”, it’s not immediately clear to everyone that what is meant by that is “there aren’t good options for people to use right now” and I wouldn’t want someone to think that contactless payments are fundamentally incompatible with GrapheneOS, or that it breaks them somehow. Contactless payments via Gpay on GrapheneOS don’t work as of right now for the exact same reason why the McDonalds app in some countries (I kid you not) doesn’t. SafetyNet / Play Integrity API and their ctsProfileMatch and MEETS_DEVICE_INTEGRITY checks accordingly.


  • For example at a time where my Pixel 7 was available for 500$ (466€) in the USA + 100$ trade in (93€) for my Galaxy S8 = 400$ = 373€ it still was 620€ in Austria on Amazon, the only way to buy it because Google did not offer it through their Google store here and normal stores didn’t go below 650€. I could’ve gotten 20€ trade in for my old phone = 600€. 60% more than in the USA at the same time.

    Used market basically didn’t exist because Pixels generally were a bit overpriced